The 21st Century Phenomenon



One of the unwritten goals of the war in Iraq was the Iraqi rich oilfields, which USA expected to be under American control, so that the dependency of America on oil, produced mostly  by political opponents, such as Russia or Venezuela, or in unstable risky parts of the World like the Middle East, will decrease. 

The official direct expenses, so far (03/2008), on the wars in Iraq and in Afghanistan is about $502 billions. 85% of the money went to finance the war in Iraq. In the best optimistic scenario somewhere in the next five years, and few hundreds billion Dollars more, it will be possible to send most of American troops back home. The most America can wish for is to transfer Iraq from a brutal Saddam Hussain style dictatorship to an Egyptian style non democratic regime, largely depended on the good will of Iran. Even USA does not believe, any more, that a functioning democracy will prosper in Iraq. The question – was it worth – will haunt the American economy and diplomacy for many years ahead.

Although there is an increase in Iraq oil production to the level of the pre-war period, it is still very low since Iraq was under international sanctions and produced only 20% from its peak. The goal of minimizing dependency on foreign oil is an absolute failure.

The price of oil went ballistic high, to a level of more then $100 a barrel, undermining substantially, American economy. The Middle East remains unstable as it always was and even more. The largest oil reserve in the World, in the Gulf, is in the range of defiant Iran, determined to controle the region through nuclear weapons and to drive out USA (and Israel) from the Middle East.  

Piles of trillions (Trillion =thousand billions) of dollars are accumulating in the Non Democratic countries of the Arab Peninsula, in such a degree that the future of American economy is no longer in USA hands but much more in the Arab oil producers hands. The way they will use their unlimited stock of dollars will determines the American level of life much more then any decision made by the American administration or the Federal Reserve. 

Lucky for USA, Arab peninsula States are dependent on America when it come to the conflict with Iran. Because of historic, religious reasons the Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia prefer to be dependent on USA rather then Iran and for the time being a fragile balance between USA and Arab Peninsula States save the America’s economy from a catastrophic crisis.

If America wants to stop its dependency on foreign oil, to recover its economy and to learn an useful historical lesson from the war in Iraq – USA must realize that energy independency can not be achieved, in the long run, by conducting expensive wars in remote places on other resource.

America can easily overcome the energy – economical crisis by giving a new direction to the economy through the use of existing technologies like Bio- diesel or clean and safe nuclear reactors and by creating new technologies, just as she did many times in the past. The point is that USA invested, directly, $502 billions on the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Some American Economy professors estimate the indirect expenses, so far (03/2008), as high as $3 trillion dollars. US did not expend even 1% of that huge amount of money to develop other resources of energy.


* Related topics :
03/2008 -U.S  DILEMMA 
01/2008 – IRAQ’S BAATH  LAW


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