The 21st Century Phenomenon






The special report of the International Atomic Energy Agency – IAEA, which was distributed on Tuesday 11/08/2011, categorically concluded that there is no other explanation to Iran’s nuclear activity but that Iran is, vigorously, seeking nuclear weaponry.  The report also mentioned endless efforts, made by Iran, to deceive, conceal and mislead the international community over its real nuclear development.


The report does not say whether Iran has already an operational military nuclear capacity and how far away Iran is from its first operational nuclear bomb. Experts said that Iran is about only 3 years away from solving their technical difficulties so it will be only a question of the Iranian leadership whether to obtain or not nuclear bombs.


Unlike Pakistan and India, Iran has an unpredictable regime and is also situated on the main gate valve of oil to the Western countries – the Hormuz Strait (see – M. Star Attack). North Korea is also an unpredictable regime but is not controlling the main flow of world’s oil and its regional ambitions are limited. So the case of Iran is far more complicated and risky than the cases of India, Pakistan and North Korea.  


Since UN Security Council Resolution 1973 of 03/17/2011, which authorized the international community to establish a no-fly zone over Libya and to use all means necessary, short of foreign occupation, to protect civilians was exploited by NATO to launch an aerial military campaign against the Libyan ruler  Muammar Gaddafi in full support to the anti-Gaddafi rebels (see -The Libyan-Campaign) – a campaign which led to the final collapse of Gaddafi’s regime, the prospect of full cooperation in the UN Security Council between the Western powers: USA, UK and France and the Eastern powers Russia and China is dramatically reduced. Russia and China block any international cooperation not only over the Iranian issue but also over the Syrian crisis.


Looking from the side on the Libyan case on one hand, where Libya gave up, voluntarily, all its weapon of mass destruction – WMD in 2003, and became therefore, as the Iranians see it, an easy prey and the Syrian crisis, on the other hand, while Syria still has a WMD capacity, and the Western Powers avoid from any military intervention in Syria as they did in Libya (see – Bashar’s Warning), the lesson for Iran is – never give up on nuclear military capacity otherwise Iran’s leadership will end like Gaddafi in Libya (see – Sirte-Gaddafi).


Russia and China are therefore reluctant to cooperate with the West over the Iranian nuclear proliferation.  For them Iran is an inconvenient annoyance. But Iran is a major threat for the Western economies although the West has still a strong say over the Iranian economy.   


Now the Western Democracies reached a T junction – one direction is the full determination to stop Iran, whatever it takes, from having military nuclear capacity. The other direction is acceptance of the fact of nuclear Iran which will threat Europe, create an even more chaotic Middle East and will enable Iran to manipulate the global economy through the oil price. Basically Iran is the problem of the Arab Sunni World, Israel and the West and they have to solve it without the help of Russia or China. 


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