– IRANIAN SETBACK

 

Despite the self confidence of the Hizbullah in Lebanon that the Pro-Syrian block and its alies are about to win the general elections in Lebanon, despite the polls and despite the fears (see – Biden-LEBANON), the Anti-Syrian block, known as the “14 March Coalition” won a land slide victory and increased its number in the Lebanese Parliament from 65 out of 128 to 70.

The majority of the anti-Syrian block is large enough even to absorb a possible assassination of few Anti-Syrian politicians as it happened so many times in the past. It is also the first measurable positive change in the Middle East since the Obama Administration assumed power in USA and the first setback for Iranian regional strategy for over two decades. 

The victory of the “14 March Coalition” is giving momentum to Obama’s speech in Cairo, on 06/04/2009 (see – Obamas Tour), and is boosting the reformists in Iran itself, ahead of the Iranian general elections scheduled to the 06/12/2009 (see – T.V Debate).    

There are several reasons to the dramatic change in the political atmosphere in Lebanon:

A. Hizbullah posted Israel as an existential threat to Lebanon and promised the continuation of the armed struggle against Israel until the liberation of all occupied lands. Most of the Lebanese are hostile to the Palestinians and although they are not in favor of Israel they do not see Israel as a threat nor they want to make their country the front line, in fact the only active frontline outside Palestine, in the struggle with Israel. Israel is no more the key issue to scare the Arabs.

B. Hizbullah promised to re-equip the Lebanese army with Iranian weapons and technology should the West put sanctions on Lebanon. The promise hit back as a boomerang and was understood as if Lebanon is about to become an Iranian satellite. Indeed the most common anti-Hizbullah poster was “No to Persian occupation”.

C. The Obama speech in Cairo, on 06//04/2009, which came in the best timing possible and changed the atmosphere, especially in the lively Lebanese society with deep roots in the Western culture, especially French culture.  

Amide the success in Lebanon to curb the Iranian surge, it should be mentioned that Hizbullah is still the most powerful and efficient political and military power in Lebanon and is functioning, successfully, as a state within a state.

The Shiites in Lebanon are (2009) 2/3 of the general population and the numbers are steadily growing but, according to the twisted Lebanese constitution, the Shiite community have only 24 seats in the 128 seats in the Parliament. The Christians, who are now about 18% of the population, have 50% of the seats – 64 seats. This situation can not last for long and is bound to change somehow.

 

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