– U.S FORECASTS 5-YEARS TERROR THREATS

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The terrorism threat to the United States over the next five years will be driven by instability in the Middle East and Africa, persistent challenges to border security and increasing Internet savvy, says a new intelligence assessment, on Thursday 12/25/2008.

Chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear attacks are considered the most dangerous threats that could be carried out against the USA But those threats are also the most unlikely because it is so difficult for Al Qaeda and similar groups to acquire the materials needed to carry out such plots, according to the internal Homeland Security Threat Assessment for the years 2008-2013.

Speaking to reporters, on 12/03/2008, Michael Chertoff, the USA Homeland Security Secretary, explained that Al Qaeda terrorist network continues to focus on USA attack targets vulnerable to massive economic losses, casualties and political turmoil. The threat posed by weapons of mass destruction remains “the highest priority at the federal level.

Marked “for official use only,” the report does not specify its audience, but the assessments typically go to law enforcement, intelligence officials and the private sector. When determining threats, intelligence officials consider loss of life, economic and psychological consequences.

Intelligence officials also predict that in the next five years, terrorists will try to conduct a destructive biological attack. Officials are concerned about the possibility of infections to thousands of USA citizens, overwhelming regional health care systems.

Generally the report is a summary of what is already known and a survey of all potential possible threat. It is more a reminder rather then an intelligence assessment. But the report also focuses, more specifically, on the role of Islamic immigration phenomena to the Western Democracies as a major issue. 

The report refers to immigration and the more restrictive European refugee and asylum programs that will cause more foreigners to try to enter the USA illegally. Increasing numbers of Iraqis are expected to migrate to the USA in the next five years; and refugees from Somalia and Sudan could increase because of conflicts in those countries, the assessment said.

Because there is a proposed cap of 12,000 refugees from Africa, officials expect more will try to enter the USA illegally as well. Officials predict the same scenario for refugees from Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Pakistan.

Intelligence officials predict the pool of radical Islamists within the USA will increase over the next five years due partly to the ease of online recruiting means. Officials foresee “a wave of young, self-identified Muslim ‘terrorist wannabes’ who aspire to carry out violent acts.”

 

 

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