– USLESS THREAT

 

 

Since operation Absolute Justice in 12/2001, the toppling of the Taliban regime and the forming of a new Afghani regime under Hamid Karzai the relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan became tense.

The Taliban is basically a Pashtu organization. The Pashtu tribes, about 20 millions in Pakistan and 12 millions in Afghanistan inhabit a lawless region of about 400,000 square kilometers, half of it in Pakistan and half in Afghanistan. The tribal area was always semi-independent and no government succeeded, in the last thousand years, to fully control the region. The Pashtu are extremely hostile to foreigners, practice an extreme version of Islam and the culture is extremely abusive towards women. For the Pashtu tribes war is not a necessity but a way of life.  If there is no foreign enemy to fight such as Russians, Americans, NATO-ISAF or the Pakistani army, they are fighting each other in the same enthusiasm. The Pashtu regions are the homeland of the Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Today the Pashtu tribes are also the last resort of Al Qaeda and its remains. (See – Focused War )

After the PAKISTANI ARMY failed in sealing the border with Afghanistan and Pakistan was on a verge of CIVIL WAR the new elected Pakistani government began to implement, in 04/2008, a national reconciliation policy in which a cease fire was already declared with some Pashtu warlords and negotiations are held with the others. (See – SWAT-DEAL )

The new attitude of Pakistan directly inflicted on the Taliban maneuverability and ability.   Taliban attacks in Afghanistan increased sharply in the last two months and so were the number of casualties in the Afghani army and in NATO-ISAF coalition forces. The last peak was the audacious Kandahar Jail-raid and the release of about 1000 prisoners, 400 of them Taliban members, on 06/14/2008. 

As response Hamid Karzai, the official PM of Afghanistan and de-facto only the Mayor of Kabul the capital, issued warning to Pakistan and has threatened to send troops over the border into Pakistan to confront militants based there. Hamid Karzai himself offered the Taliban to begin negotiation about a political power sharing deal but the Taliban rejected the offer on 09/29/2007. Taliban Spokesman Qari Yusuf Ahmadi, in a proclamation to foreign news agencies, declared that the Taliban would never negotiate with the Afghan authorities while foreign troops remained in the country. (See – TALIBAN-09.29.07 )

The Afghan army is showing very poor performances in fighting the Taliban in Afghanistan and the threat to send troops to Pakistan in all realistic terms is baseless and useless.  The warning issued by PM Hanid Karzai to Pakistan exposes, most of all, the frustration and helplessness of Hamid Karzai himself.

 

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