The 21st Century Phenomenon



It is about 12 days after the Hamas took over Gaza strip in an event that shocked the Palestinian society, the USA policy in the Middle East, Israel and the Arab neighbors. After 12 days Hamas has all the reason to smile. From its point of view the crisis is almost over.

The Arab community, at large, does not show any intention to boycott the Hamas. Most of the Arab pressure is to resume the talks on Palestinian unity, so did yesterday the president of Egypt Hussni Mubarak in series of interviews to the Israeli media. Egypt, the key country, already declared that its Military delegation will return to Gaza soon to mediate between Israel and Hamas a deal to release the Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit. Even more, with Egyptian consent, a Hamas security delegation from Gaza went last Sunday, 06/24/2007, through Cairo, to Damascus, Syria for talks. There is no change in the deployment of Egyptian troops to fight the arm smuggling of weapons from Egypt to Gaza.

Because of humanitarian reasons Israel continues to supply 70% of Gaza electricity, 40% of the water supply, food and medicaments. There is not an Israeli substantial change toward Gaza strip.

The Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov declared yesterday, twice, in Israel after his meetings with Israeli new president Shimon Peres and Israeli Foreign Minister Zipi Livny that Russia does not support a policy of separating Hamas from Fatah and they should resume talks to reform a united Palestinian government. He came to Jerusalem to the Quartet meeting (Russia, EU, UN and USA) to discuss the policy toward Hamas and his position is crucial.

On the internal arena law and order were restored in Gaza. Armed factions or gangs were removed from the streets and Gaza is experiencing one of the quitest weeks ever since 1994, when Israel left Gaza city. The number of refugees that wished to leave Gaza summed up to a few hundreds. Most – if not all – were senior Fatah operatives that served in the 8 different security apparatus loyal to Fatah in Gaza.

Hamas managed to create a political balance with Fatah in the West Bank. Only few dozens of Hamas supporters were really arrested in the West Bank and some Hamas’s offices burnt for the International TV channels. Hamas made it clear that the thousands Fatah supporters in Gaza will pay the price of any persecution of Hamas loyalists in the West Bank.

On the other hand the streets of the towns in the West Bank are still controlled by armed gangs. Al Aksa martyrs Brigade supposed to obey Fatah leadership is still loyal to many local bosses.  Although President Mahmoud Abbas banned yesterday, 06/26/2007, to carry illegal arms in the streets of the West Bank there is no reason to believe that the decree will be implemented better than all the formers decrees that were, generally, ignored. Have they been implemented – all the last events could not have happened.

Summary ; 

A. So far the international and Arab isolation and non-legitimacy of Hamas is a myth.

B. President Mahmoud Abbas and the Fatah supporters in the West Bank have not the determination, the Internal Palestinian legitimacy and the vitality to cope with the anarchy in the West Bank in one hand and with Hamas in the other hand.

C. The resume of talks between Hamas and Fatah will happened soon and at that time the merging of Hamas in the PLO will be in the center of the deal.  (see HAMAS-Fatah )


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